David Pocock

Today we introduce the Prime Minister (you name your country; he rules them all) – BP’s newest correspondent and our resident rugby expert. The PM will be utterly neglecting his parliamentary duties between now and late October… instead, his eyes and heart will be glued to the screen as he frantically gobbles up and digests every second of coverage leading up to and during this September/October’s Rugby World Cup in his native New Zealand.

Here’s the first of his musings on the state of the rugby world. Take it away, PM.

Is David Pocock the best rugby player in the world? This is the implication of former Australian hardman Owen Finegan’s comment that he rates Pocock as a better player than New Zealand’s flanker, Richie McCaw. McCaw is the reigning International Rugby Board Player of the Year, having won the award three of the 10 times it has been handed out. He has played 96 tests for the All Blacks (Saturday will be his 60th as captain) and won close to 90% of them. Although he has had some injuries this year, he’s amazingly durable given the position he plays and the punishment his body endures, and he has a more finely-calibrated sense of the offside rule than anyone in the game (including the refs). (His opponents would argue that, like Pippo Inzaghi, he was born offside.) Anyway, he’s pretty bloody good.

Pocock’s pretty good too, and possibly an even more impressive physical specimen (he has arms like Popeye after a can of steroid-enhanced spinach), but he still has something to prove before he overtakes McCaw. And that’s what is driving the timing of “Melon” Finegan’s comment.

This weekend kicks off the real warm-up to the 2011 Rugby World Cup. On Saturday, Australia take on New Zealand at Eden Park, Auckland, the venue for the World Cup semi-finals and finals in October. The Wallabies haven’t won at Eden Park in 25 years, and are looking to break that streak. There’s also the small matter that this match will probably decide both the Bledisloe Cup (the annual competition between the All Blacks and the Wallabies) and the Tri Nations (with South Africa having effectively conceded that trophy by leaving 21 top players at home – including a couple of other contenders for the title of world’s best loose forward, Schalk Burger and Pierre Spies – for their matches against Australia and New Zealand).

Pocock’s just one of a number of confident young Wallabies, including Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Kurtley Beale, who may find this a World Cup too soon, but who could all be the best players in their respective positions next time around. They’re pretty close to it now. The All Blacks, meanwhile, have named the oldest and most experienced side ever for the test against the Wallabies (older even than the 2003 World Cup-winning England team), with an average age of 28 and a total of 766 test caps between them. The average age is somewhat distorted by the fact that the legendary Brad Thorn, 36, is still in the team, and belying his age, but what is certain is that many of these guys, maybe even Richie, are going to be playing in their last World Cup.

Not that they need to put themselves under any more pressure – if New Zealand does not win this World Cup), the country will drown under the weight of the people’s tears (despite being the world’s top-ranked team virtually throughout the period, they have not won a World Cup since the first one, which they also hosted, in 1987, and they’ve had a very tough year off the field).

Another potential “best player” returning to the All Blacks team is Hosea Gear, who coach Graeme Henry rated last year as the “best winger in the world.” It is a sign of the depth of the All Blacks squad that the return of Gear (and Sitiveni Sivivatu on the other wing) means that there is no place for either of the two guys who scored two tries last week against South Africa, the two best performers on a team that won 40-7. So is the fact that Sonny Bill Williams, the former rugby league star who relaxes with occasional stints as a professional heavyweight boxer, and who did this to Scotland in November, is only the back-up centre.

But one position all of New Zealand will be watching anxiously on Saturday is first five-eighth (or fly half in the English style), where the prevailing wisdom is that Dan Carter should be rolled in bubble-wrap or at least, like his opposite number on Saturday, excused from tackling, since his replacements do not totally convince. Carter, comfortably the best No. 10 in the world, maybe ever, proved again last week that he can dominate a game even when he’s not kicking well. His back-up, Colin Slade, came on for 20 minutes and scored a try, but has made the squad in part because the two broken jaws he suffered this year meant he did not have time to play his way out of contention, unlike his two closest competitors.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, England take on Wales at Twickenham in London. One or both of them may be wearing their new All Black “wannabe” kits. England are another side that may be more confident about World Cup 2015 than 2011, with some promising young players emerging after a challenging start to the Martin Johnson era, but they have some potential match winners in the side and, as always, will be competitive. Johnson has named Manu Tuilagi (the youngest of what is surely the most talented rugby family in the world since the Goings and the Ellas, his four older brothers having all represented Samoa) at centre.

England fans are hoping that their new all-Polynesian midfield (Riki Flutey is Maori) will be able to open the game up more than the previous pairing (Shontayne Hape and the newest member of the Royal Family, Mike Tindall). Inside them, Jonny Wilkinson will be looking to regain the world points-scoring record he lost last week to Dan Carter. Saint Jonny is not the player he was in 2003, but he has apparently been rejuvenated since joining Toulon, and you know he’ll come through under pressure. The Welsh No. 10 is just as experienced – Stephen Jones will be earning a Welsh record 101st test cap on Saturday.

It is hard to know what to make of the Welsh team – they have been startlingly inconsistent in recent years, but always relish the chance to take on the English in England. Whether they will relish taking on South Africa (who are much, much better than their recent games against New Zealand and Australia suggest), Fiji (who knocked Wales out of the 2007 World Cup) and Samoa (who beat them in the 1991 and 1999 World Cups, and who recently beat an only-slightly-under-strength Australia) is quite another matter. Now that’s literally a Group of Death – those are (with Tonga) the hardest-tackling teams in world rugby. If all 30 Welsh players survive the group stages, they’ll be happy. If the team does, they’ll be over the moon.

Up in Edinburgh, Scotland host Ireland. Scotland are in England’s group in the World Cup, and will have the advantage of feeling like they’re playing at home (they get to play their first game in Invercargill, where the people sound like Scots with a Kiwi accent, or vice versa, and the weather in September can be distinctly Hibernian), but they’ll consider themselves satisfied if they finish ahead of Argentina in second and get out of the group stages. Ireland, on the other hand, are genuine contenders, with a strong, experienced pack, great loosies and some genuine class in the backs, led by the superlative Brian O’Driscoll. Their game against Australia on September 17 should be one of the highlights of the World Cup’s group stages.

One of the other highlights of the World Cup’s group stages should be the game between New Zealand and France on September 24. France, as ever, are an enigma. On their day, they can beat anyone, as the All Blacks have frequently, and heart-breakingly, discovered. But in March, they lost to Italy. Their coach, Marc Lièvremont, still does not appear to have settled on his first choice team, but he is in the happy position of having options. So many that we may not even know whether the team he fields against New Zealand is a B team or not. They have an excellent mix of youth and experience. It would be no surprise if someone like Fulgence Ouedraogo, their flanker, emerged as one of the stars of the tournament. Or it might be a player from one of the “lesser” nations.

The Italians have proved since joining the 6 Nations that they can compete with the big boys on their day, and players like Martin Castrogiovanni, Mauro Bergamasco and Sergio Parisse are genuinely world class. Argentina are also more than capable of an upset – they will be targeting Scotland and a quarter-final berth.

Japan may not challenge for the Cup, but the Asian Cup champions should be much more competitive than the team that lost 145-17 to the All Blacks in 1995 and are a fit and skilful team, with occasional flashes of brilliance – Kosuke Endo’s try in the 2007 World Cup loss to Wales was one of the tries of the tournament. They will get significant backing in New Zealand, not least because their coach, John Kirwan, already a legend for doing things like this, has become a hero for fronting a remarkable series of ads, and writing a book, about his struggles with depression.

Samoa, Fiji and Tonga have to overcome huge challenges to play international rugby. Many of their players also qualify to play for other countries (especially New Zealand but increasingly Australia, Japan and now England) through residency and family ties, and those that are eligible often play in Europe so aren’t always available for international matches. However, they have provided many of the greatest moments, and greatest players, in previous World Cups and will effectively be playing at home – Auckland has the largest Polynesian population of any city in the world.

Canada and the USA also kick off their World Cup warm-ups against each other this weekend and who’s to say that Canada’s DTH van der Merwe or the USA’s Takudzwa Ngwenya (who scored another of the tries of the tournament in 2007) won’t produce a moment of magic?

So, is David Pocock the best rugby player in the world? Is Richie McCaw? Ask us again on October 23.

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