A smaller NHL – coming soon

Another guest post from BP’s own Hasidic scribe, Pinot Noir:

The Atlanta Thrashers are likely moving to Winnipeg, and the NHL may yet find a new home for the Phoenix Coyotes after next year, but these moves are masking what I think is an inevitable move to a smaller NHL.

One of the funny things about humans is our ability to assume that things will inevitably continue in their current state. It’s kind of a “if it always was so, it will always be so” attitude and I truly believe that it’s hard-wired into our psyche.

Tell a member of a mainstream church in 1965 that their membership would decline 80% by 2011, they would have labeled you a heathen. And who in 1985 would have predicted that a business as new, exciting and successful as Blockbuster Video would be bankrupt by 2011. (That’s what “no late fees” will get you. Brilliant biz plan. – Ed)

The fact is that even the most revered and successful governments, institutions, and businesses are capable of major change or destruction. And when it comes to hockey, I think the NHL is heading in the same direction as churches and video stores.

Here’s why. Take a 6 team league that played 420 games each year and expand it to 30 teams playing 2,460 games – 82 games per team, played in four different time zones. The result is dilution, in terms of teams and games, talent, players you know and players you care about. And with player salaries skyrocketing even in the age of salary caps, you know that someone has to pay.

The end result on many nights during the regular season is just plain crappy entertainment. To use a wine analogy, we’re getting diluted vat wine at Bordeaux prices. (Ah – Pinot works wine into everything – Ed.) And in a free market, that’s not sustainable because better opportunities will emerge. They won’t emerge overnight, but over time, someone or something will fill the vacuum created by a diluted NHL offering.

You can already see it happening, with declining minor hockey enrolment, the growing love of world sports such as international football among our youth, and the serious financial issues related to several NHL franchises.

To date, older generations and corporations have continued to support the hockey tradition in many markets, and the expansion fees and other revenue have lined the pockets of owners. But the older generations are dying, corporations have to buy tickets to events that their clients will value, and the days of expansion are long gone.

If the Thrashers move to Winnipeg, it will mark the second go-around for both Atlanta and Winnipeg in terms of hosting NHL teams. It’s a big game of musical chairs that won’t last. Within 10 years, the NHL will be down to 21 teams, with each team playing fewer games on larger ice surfaces. The product will improve, each game will carry more meaning, and the future of the league will be that much brighter. But it will be an ugly process getting there, as the league will only begin moving in that direction when its survival is at stake. The path from 30 teams to 21 will consist of a trail of bankrupt owners, unemployed players and much labour unrest.

In response, I offer only three words: bring it on. The 20 English Premier League teams play a 38 game schedule. National Football League teams number 32, but they play just 16 games a season. While both leagues have plenty of issues, they have huge followings, with regular season games that are often both entertaining and meaningful. Sometimes in the world of sport, less is more. Here’s hoping that hockey moves in that direction soon.